{"id":18705,"date":"2019-03-21T08:37:24","date_gmt":"2019-03-21T01:37:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuanta.com.vn\/?post_type=phan-tich&#038;p=18705"},"modified":"2019-03-30T14:19:23","modified_gmt":"2019-03-30T07:19:23","slug":"vhm-undisputed-champion-but-fully-valued","status":"publish","type":"phan-tich","link":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/vhm-undisputed-champion-but-fully-valued","title":{"rendered":"VHM&#8211;Undisputed champion, but fully valued"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>HOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Current price (03-20-2019): VND 92,200<\/p>\n<p><strong>Target price:<\/strong> <strong>VND 91,300<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Upside:\u00a0 -1%<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Investment thesis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Competitive advantages of scale that dwarfs the competition.<\/li>\n<li>Solid branding strategy &amp; operating model.<\/li>\n<li>But the valuation is not cheap, and it\u2019s too late to chase, in our view.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Our view: Caution on the current valuation. <\/strong>We believe that VHM\u2019s undeniable scale advantages will allow it to maintain sector leadership for many years to come. However, we have a cautious cyclical view on property developers, and uncertainties regarding the timing of project approvals are further reasons for pause. The stock\u2019s 25% rise YTD has helped VinGroup tickers lead the overall index higher, but we would not chase it at current valuations. We initiate coverage with a <strong>HOLD<\/strong> rating and target price of <strong>VND 91,300.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Dominating the property market. <\/strong>VHM\u2019s land bank is 22x larger than that of its nearest competitor. This scale alone should enable it to dominate the Vietnamese property industry for many years. We also believe that VHM\u2019s segmented branding strategy is sound, especially given our view that real residential demand should support the mid-end and affordable segments. This is despite expected weakness in high-end and luxury homes, which are typically favored by speculators\/investors.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Valuation fully reflects the positives.<\/strong> The stock\u2019s 25% YTD rally has priced in the positives, in our view. Our RNAV-derived target price implies -1% downside with no expected dividend support. The stock\u2019s 9.4% VNIndex weighting could leave some investors facing benchmark risk, but we would not chase VHM here.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yuanta vs consensus.<\/strong> Our 2019E net income forecast is 9% lower than the consensus mean, possibly due to a lower assumption for unit deliveries. We also assume that some projects in the pipeline will take longer to execute than VHM has guided for, which may be why our RNAV-based fair value is 4% below the Street.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Risks to our view.<\/strong> Approvals for several of VHM\u2019s projects have yet to be issued, and uncertainties regarding licensing standards and land use rights fees are concerns. On the positive side, VHM is a leader in tapping the domestic debt capital markets and funding risk is less of a concern. Also, VHM\u2019s large index weighting could result in continued stock price strength on inflows from benchmarked funds.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Please access the link for our complete report: <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/VHM-Initiation-Undisputed-champion-but-fully-valued-2.pdf\">VHM Initiation &#8212; Undisputed champion, but fully valued<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Analyst: Tam Nguyen, tam.nguyen@yuanta.com.vn<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>HOLD Current price (03-20-2019): VND 92,200 Target price: VND 91,300 Upside:\u00a0 -1% Investment thesis Competitive advantages of scale that dwarfs the competition. Solid branding strategy &amp; operating model. But the valuation is not cheap, and it\u2019s too late to chase, in our view. Our view: Caution on the current valuation. We believe that VHM\u2019s undeniable&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-18705","phan-tich","type-phan-tich","status-publish","hentry","analysis-category-real-estate"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v23.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>VHM--Undisputed champion, but fully valued | Yuanta Vietnam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"HOLD Current price (03-20-2019): VND 92,200 Target price: VND 91,300 Upside:\u00a0 -1% Investment thesis Competitive advantages of scale that dwarfs the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"VHM--Undisputed champion, but fully valued\" \/>\n<meta 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