{"id":19223,"date":"2019-04-01T08:45:43","date_gmt":"2019-04-01T01:45:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuanta.com.vn\/?post_type=phan-tich&#038;p=19223"},"modified":"2019-04-01T08:45:43","modified_gmt":"2019-04-01T01:45:43","slug":"update-msn-short-term-headwinds-are-priced-in","status":"publish","type":"phan-tich","link":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/update-msn-short-term-headwinds-are-priced-in","title":{"rendered":"[Update] MSN &#8211; Short-term headwinds are priced in"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Target price: VND 93,000<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Upside: 10.3%<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Event catalyst:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Negative newsflow on fish sauce is a short-term sentiment drag.<\/li>\n<li>ASF might constrain MSN\u2019s short-term performance, but we see longer-term benefits for large pork producers.<\/li>\n<li>Copper concentrate export ban weighs on MSR\u2019s performance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Negative impact from media buzz on fish sauce <\/strong><strong>is temporary<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong> The latest draft of standards for producing fish sauces has created strong and mostly negative media buzz for industrial sauces. In our view, this event is highly unlikely to meaningfully impact MSN\u2019s business performance, and we also appreciate the company\u2019s proactive product innovation efforts.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But <\/strong><strong>ASF<\/strong><strong> is a real threat <\/strong><strong>in the short run.<\/strong> The hit to animal feed volumes and consumer concerns about pork cause us to downgrade our forecasts for both animal feed and MEATDeli for FY19E. However, MSN has proven its ability to block the disease from reaching its pigs, which underlines our view that large and modern pork producers should benefit from consolidation longer-term.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ban on copper concentrate exports to weigh on MSR\u2019s results. <\/strong>We see little likelihood for a solution to this issue any time soon. As such, we revise down the resources segment\u2019s growth rate from 20% to 10% during FY19E-20E. We also use lower assumption for gross margin of 55% (instead of 60% as before)..<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Our view:<\/strong> Short-term headwinds from African Swine Fever (ASF), negative media chatter on fish sauce, and restrictions on concentrated metal exports trigger us to revise down our earnings forecasts by 16-17% for MSN in FY19-20E. As a result, <strong>we cut our fair value-based target price by 9.4% to<\/strong> <strong>VND 93,000<\/strong>. We believe the negative catalysts are more than discounted in the stock\u2019s valuation here. Moreover, we remain positive on the longer-term outlook. We thus maintain our <strong>BUY<\/strong> recommendation on MSN with 12.3% expected total shareholder returns over the next 12 months.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Please access the link for our complete report: <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Masan-Short-term-headwinds-are-in-the-price.pdf\">Masan &#8212; Short term headwinds are in the price<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Analyst: Quang Vo,\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"mailto:quang.vo@yuanta.com.vn\"><em>quang.vo@yuanta.com.vn<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Target price: VND 93,000 Upside: 10.3% Event catalyst: Negative newsflow on fish sauce is a short-term sentiment drag. ASF might constrain MSN\u2019s short-term performance, but we see longer-term benefits for large pork producers. Copper concentrate export ban weighs on MSR\u2019s performance. Negative impact from media buzz on fish sauce is temporary. The latest draft of&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-19223","phan-tich","type-phan-tich","status-publish","hentry","analysis-category-company-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v23.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>[Update] MSN - Short-term headwinds are priced in | Yuanta Vietnam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Target price: VND 93,000 Upside: 10.3% Event catalyst: Negative newsflow on fish sauce is a short-term sentiment drag. 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