{"id":19569,"date":"2019-04-04T08:23:31","date_gmt":"2019-04-04T01:23:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuanta.com.vn\/?post_type=phan-tich&p=19569"},"modified":"2019-04-04T08:45:22","modified_gmt":"2019-04-04T01:45:22","slug":"vietnam-strategy-time-for-a-breather-in-2q19","status":"publish","type":"phan-tich","link":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/vietnam-strategy-time-for-a-breather-in-2q19","title":{"rendered":"Vietnam Strategy: Time for a breather in 2Q19"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vietnam Strategy — Time for a breather in 2Q19<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Year of the Pig came in like a lion<\/strong>, but in our view a period of lamb-like consolidation is due in 2Q19. Vietnam\u2019s attractive macro story has generated strong foreign ETF inflows YTD, but global central bank (GCB) policy is a risk given mixed economic data in the major economies. Also, external political risks remain high (e.g., Brexit, the trade war, and crises in other emerging economies). Although these don\u2019t touch Vietnam directly, such events could influence capital flows here \u2013 which supports our argument for a cooling-off period in 2Q19.<\/p>\n

We maintain our view for a stronger 2H19 <\/strong>on persistent investment allocations encouraged by GCB softening. Select banks may face pressure from regulation on unsecured consumer loans, but we remain positive on BID and STB. We also like select consumer names (MSN, PNJ, DGW). We are Overweight securities firms (HCM, VND) but acknowledge that tepid 2Q19 market conditions may pressure these stocks. Despite the leading real estate developers\u2019 strong YTD performance, we are fundamentally cautious on the sector given our view on the property cycle.<\/p>\n

Themes and catalysts<\/strong><\/p>\n