{"id":23072,"date":"2019-06-03T08:39:16","date_gmt":"2019-06-03T01:39:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuanta.com.vn\/?post_type=phan-tich&#038;p=23072"},"modified":"2019-06-03T08:39:16","modified_gmt":"2019-06-03T01:39:16","slug":"company-note-mns-tungsten-turns-to-gold-probably-not","status":"publish","type":"phan-tich","link":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/company-note-mns-tungsten-turns-to-gold-probably-not","title":{"rendered":"Company note: MNS &#8212; Tungsten turns to gold? Probably not\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Target price: 93,000<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Upside: 8.1%<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Event catalyst:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The market seems to believe that tungsten is a rare earth metal.<\/li>\n<li>China represents 70% of global tungsten production, and could use the metal as a bargaining chip.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u201c<\/strong><strong>Don\u2019t say we didn\u2019t warn you\u201d<\/strong>. China dominates the world\u2019s tungsten production with over 80% market share, and Chinese tungsten accounts for 43% of US tungsten imports, according to Flexport data. Whether tungsten supply is a component of China\u2019s warning remains unclear.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Is tungsten even a rare earth metal? <\/strong>According to our informal survey, investors appear to consider tungsten to be a rare earth metal. But <a href=\"https:\/\/old.iupac.org\/publications\/books\/rbook\/Red_Book_2005.pdf\">The International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC)<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/diyhpl.us\/~nmz787\/mems\/unorganized\/CRC%20Handbook%20of%20Chemistry%20and%20Physics%2085th%20edition.pdf\">CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics<\/a> do not include tungsten on their list of 17 rare earth elements.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We can\u2019t rule out China using tungsten as a bargaining chip<\/strong>, rare earth or not. Tungsten accounts for 60% of MSR\u2019s sales and 30% of profits. The table below summarizes the sensitivities to MSN\u2019s earnings and fair value if tungsten prices rise in 2020-21E. However, we aren\u2019t metals experts but our understanding is that any potential supply-demand mismatch would not likely persist for very long. So our sense is that last week\u2019s share price excitement for MSR may have been overdone.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Rareearth-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-23081 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\" width=\"762\" height=\"187\" data-src=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Rareearth-1.png\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Please access the link for our complete report: <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/MSN_Tungsten-price-sensitivities.pdf\">MSN_Tungsten price sensitivities<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Analyst: Quang Vo,\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"mailto:quang.vo@yuanta.com.vn\"><em>quang.vo@yuanta.com.vn<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Target price: 93,000 Upside: 8.1% Event catalyst: The market seems to believe that tungsten is a rare earth metal. China represents 70% of global tungsten production, and could use the metal as a bargaining chip. \u201cDon\u2019t say we didn\u2019t warn you\u201d. China dominates the world\u2019s tungsten production with over 80% market share, and Chinese tungsten&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-23072","phan-tich","type-phan-tich","status-publish","hentry","analysis-category-company-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v23.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Company note: MNS -- Tungsten turns to gold? Probably not\u2026 | Yuanta Vietnam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Target price: 93,000 Upside: 8.1% Event catalyst: The market seems to believe that tungsten is a rare earth metal. 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