{"id":37629,"date":"2019-10-24T15:00:17","date_gmt":"2019-10-24T08:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuanta.com.vn\/?post_type=phan-tich&#038;p=37629"},"modified":"2020-06-26T15:31:37","modified_gmt":"2020-06-26T08:31:37","slug":"mbb_3q19-watch-casa-and-npl","status":"publish","type":"phan-tich","link":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/mbb_3q19-watch-casa-and-npl","title":{"rendered":"MBB_3Q19: Watch CASA and NPL"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Action:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt\"><strong>BUY<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>TP upside (downside) +25%<\/p>\n<p><strong>Price (23 Oct)\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0VND 22,900<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>12M Target (*)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><strong>VND 28,694<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Previous TP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 29,880<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Change\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -4%<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt\"><strong>Event<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Positives: <\/strong>3Q19 PBT was VND2.7 tn (+12% QoQ and +25% YoY).<\/li>\n<li>PBT for 9M19 (+27% YoY) was 76% of our full-year forecast.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Negatives: <\/strong>3Q19 NPL ratio of 1.54% was up 21bps vs. 2018A.<\/li>\n<li>Negative CASA growth of 13% YTD caused a concern<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 18pt\">Our Take<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Retail loans continue to dominate<\/strong>. MBB posted credit growth of 11.9% YTD, of which retail and private companies\u2019 loans account for 89% of the loan book. The Bank reported 3Q19 net interest income (NII) of VND4.6 tn (+4% QoQ \/ +26% YoY) and 9M19 NII of VND13.1 tn (+26% YoY). 9M19 NIM was 3.73%, which was up 40bps compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2026But watch CASA<\/strong>. CASA deposits declined by 13% YTD, which could be a potential concern given that the superior funding franchise is one of MBB\u2019s key attractions. As at 3Q19, MBB\u2019s CASA ratio was 33%, down 7ppt vs. 2018A.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3Q19 fee income was VND499 bn (-53% QoQ \/ -30% YoY), but 9M19 was VND2.3 tn (+37% YoY). <\/strong>Bancassurance net income was VND1.3 tn (+46% YoY) and contributed 54% to the total YTD fees. This was slightly down from banca\u2019s 59% fee contribution in 2018A. But we remain bullish on this segment given that the comparisons are skewed by one-off upfront fees last year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3Q19 PBT was VND2.7 tn (+12% QoQ \/ +25% YoY) and 9M19 was VND7.6 tn (+27% YoY). <\/strong>This completed 80% of the bank\u2019s full-year target, 76% of our 2019E forecast, and 76% of Bloomberg consensus PBT.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Asset quality remains solid but keep an eye on rising NPLs.<\/strong> MBB\u2019s NPL ratio was 1.54% as at 3Q19, 21bps higher than that of 2018A. Category 5 NPLs (i.e., loss) were up 40% YTD in the first three quarters of 2019.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Our view:<\/strong> The lower CASA numbers and higher NPLs are our key concerns from these results. However, the potential sale of another 7.5% of FOL-eligible capital and the inclusion in the VN-Diamond Index (i.e., the Vietnam-FOL Index with a benchmarked ETF to be launched as early as 4Q19) could provide strong catalysts for MBB\u2019s stock price performance in 4Q19. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/MBB_Initiation_Jun-2019.pdf\">MBB<\/a> \u2013 King of CASA.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>For the complete report, please access here: <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/MBB_3Q19-Update_10.2019.pdf\">MBB_3Q19 Update_10.2019<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Analyst: Tanh Tran<\/strong>,\u00a0<em>tanh.tran@yuanta.com.vn<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Action:\u00a0 BUY TP upside (downside) +25% Price (23 Oct)\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0VND 22,900 12M Target (*)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 28,694 Previous TP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 29,880 Change\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -4% &nbsp; Event Positives: 3Q19 PBT was VND2.7 tn (+12% QoQ and +25% YoY). PBT for 9M19 (+27% YoY) was 76% of our full-year forecast. Negatives: 3Q19 NPL ratio of 1.54%&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-37629","phan-tich","type-phan-tich","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v23.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MBB_3Q19: Watch CASA and NPL | Yuanta Vietnam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Action:\u00a0 BUY TP upside (downside) +25% Price (23 Oct)\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0VND 22,900 12M Target (*)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 28,694 Previous TP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 29,880\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MBB_3Q19: Watch 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