{"id":43287,"date":"2019-12-20T08:39:25","date_gmt":"2019-12-20T01:39:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuanta.com.vn\/?post_type=phan-tich&#038;p=43287"},"modified":"2019-12-20T08:39:25","modified_gmt":"2019-12-20T01:39:25","slug":"strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition","status":"publish","type":"phan-tich","link":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition","title":{"rendered":"Strategy &#8212; Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Diamond ETF to shine in 2020.<\/strong> The VN Diamond Index of full-FOL or nearly full-FOL stocks was officially announced by HOSE in Nov 2019 but the ETF has not yet been launched. Market chatter is for a January entrance for this product, but we suspect it will be later than that given the early Tet holidays. Regardless, the constituent shares have already rallied (and faded) on domestic investor opportunism. Consensus expectations are currently cautious, but this could change quickly. We believe that the product will attract reasonably strong interest from foreign investors seeking exposure to the full-FOL names.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Knowns &amp; unknowns. <\/strong>We know the index components (see the table at left) but not much else. The weightings in this report are estimates based on the stocks\u2019 free float market capitalizations adjusted for the 15% cap on single stocks and 40% cap on single industries. Without these caps, the banks would account for 52% of the index. As for the potential inflows, estimates that have run as high as US$500m appear overly stretched\u2014we think assuming US$50-100m is more reasonable for now.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Screening for the liquidity impact<\/strong>. Having deduced that capital flows into low-volume stocks tend to drive share prices up, we ran a screen to estimate the number of days of turnover that a range of possible inflows would represent for each VN Diamond component. Based on our index weighting estimates, the impact appears most meaningful for TPB, CTD, GMD, TCB, and KDH based on the stocks\u2019 recent daily turnover.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Domestic investors<\/strong> may start buying these names (again) in the run-up to the ETF\u2019s launch. It may be cold comfort to those of us who can\u2019t participate yet, but we suspect that fund managers who hold these full-FOL names can look forward to solid performance results in 1Q20.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4Q19: Stick a fork in it<\/strong>. We see no need to belabor the point, but suffice to say that our contrarian call for <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/Vietnam-Strategy-How-to-break-out-in-4Q19.pdf\">a rally in 4Q19<\/a> has not worked out.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But we believe the market should rally in 1Q20<\/strong>, in part as a seasonal phenomenon but also with potentially extra liquidity for the VN Diamond constituents, from both \u201cearly\u201d local punters and later from the ETF itself. We are more cautious on the overall outlook for the remainder of 2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Top picks: <\/strong>VHM in property; STB as a longer-term turnaround play in the banks; POW as a proxy on energy demand; and HCM as a long-term play on the development of Vietnam\u2019s capital markets\u2014or as a hedge if you\u2019re underweight the market ahead of our expected 1Q20 rally.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Please access the link for our complete report: <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/Strategy-Of-FOLs-and-Money_The-Diamond-Edition.pdf\">Strategy &#8212; Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Diamond ETF to shine in 2020. The VN Diamond Index of full-FOL or nearly full-FOL stocks was officially announced by HOSE in Nov 2019 but the ETF has not yet been launched. Market chatter is for a January entrance for this product, but we suspect it will be later than that given the early Tet&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-43287","phan-tich","type-phan-tich","status-publish","hentry","analysis-category-market-strategy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v23.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Strategy -- Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition | Yuanta Vietnam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Diamond ETF to shine in 2020. The VN Diamond Index of full-FOL or nearly full-FOL stocks was officially announced by HOSE in Nov 2019 but the ETF has not\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Strategy -- Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Diamond ETF to shine in 2020. The VN Diamond Index of full-FOL or nearly full-FOL stocks was officially announced by HOSE in Nov 2019 but the ETF has not\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Yuanta Vietnam\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition\",\"name\":\"Strategy -- Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition | Yuanta Vietnam\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-12-20T01:39:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-12-20T01:39:25+00:00\",\"description\":\"Diamond ETF to shine in 2020. The VN Diamond Index of full-FOL or nearly full-FOL stocks was officially announced by HOSE in Nov 2019 but the ETF has not\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Analysis\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Strategy &#8212; Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/\",\"name\":\"Yuanta Vietnam\",\"description\":\"Asia&#039;s leading Financial Holding Group and Securities Firm\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Yuanta Vietnam\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/favicon.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/favicon.png\",\"width\":33,\"height\":32,\"caption\":\"Yuanta Vietnam\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Strategy -- Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition | Yuanta Vietnam","description":"Diamond ETF to shine in 2020. The VN Diamond Index of full-FOL or nearly full-FOL stocks was officially announced by HOSE in Nov 2019 but the ETF has not","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Strategy -- Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition","og_description":"Diamond ETF to shine in 2020. The VN Diamond Index of full-FOL or nearly full-FOL stocks was officially announced by HOSE in Nov 2019 but the ETF has not","og_url":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition","og_site_name":"Yuanta Vietnam","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition","url":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition","name":"Strategy -- Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition | Yuanta Vietnam","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#website"},"datePublished":"2019-12-20T01:39:25+00:00","dateModified":"2019-12-20T01:39:25+00:00","description":"Diamond ETF to shine in 2020. The VN Diamond Index of full-FOL or nearly full-FOL stocks was officially announced by HOSE in Nov 2019 but the ETF has not","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/strategy-of-fols-and-money_the-diamond-edition#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Analysis","item":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Strategy &#8212; Of FOLs and Money_The Diamond Edition"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#website","url":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/","name":"Yuanta Vietnam","description":"Asia&#039;s leading Financial Holding Group and Securities Firm","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#organization","name":"Yuanta Vietnam","url":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/favicon.png","contentUrl":"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/favicon.png","width":33,"height":32,"caption":"Yuanta Vietnam"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/phan-tich\/43287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/phan-tich"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/phan-tich"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/phan-tich\/43287\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}