{"id":45120,"date":"2020-01-10T14:46:35","date_gmt":"2020-01-10T07:46:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuanta.com.vn\/?post_type=phan-tich&#038;p=45120"},"modified":"2020-01-10T14:46:35","modified_gmt":"2020-01-10T07:46:35","slug":"vcb_preliminary-2019-pbt-exceeds-16-vs-target","status":"publish","type":"phan-tich","link":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/vcb_preliminary-2019-pbt-exceeds-16-vs-target","title":{"rendered":"VCB_Preliminary 2019 PBT exceeds 16% vs. target"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Preliminary 4Q19 PBT was down 12% QoQ and down 16% YoY (source: <a href=\"https:\/\/vnexpress.net\/kinh-doanh\/loi-nhuan-vietcombank-cao-gap-doi-vietinbank-bidv-4040067.html\">vnexpress<\/a>). These preliminary results are reported on a local website, and do not include the full financial statements.<\/li>\n<li>However, 2019 PBT (+27% YoY) reached 108% of our full-year forecast and 116% of full-year guidance.<\/li>\n<li>Retail loans dominate the loan portfolio, representing 52% of the total loans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 18pt\">Our Take<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credit growth reached 16.4% YoY, in line with our forecast <\/strong>but higher than the initial target of 15.0% disclosed at the beginning of the year. SME and individual loans are the key driver to loan growth and NIM improvement, accounting for 52% of total loans.<\/p>\n<p><strong>PBT reached VND5.5 tn in 4Q19, down -12% QoQ and -16% YoY. <\/strong>However, preliminary 2019 PBT reached VND23.2 tn (+27% YoY), completing 116% of the bank\u2019s full-year target and 108% of our forecast for 2019.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Asset quality beat our expectations. <\/strong>VCB\u2019s NPL ratio was 0.77% (-21bps YoY) vs our 1.03% assumption for 2019. Loan loss coverage was 183% (+18ppt YoY) vs our 160% assumption.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Our view. <\/strong>We believe that NIM will continue to improve on a shift in the loan mix to increased retail lending. We estimate that NIM reached 3.05% in 2019E (+15bps YoY). Looking forward, fee income should be boosted by the bancassurance deal with FWD. We expect a US$400 mn upfront fee in 2020, with increased bancassurance revenues going forward that should improve ROE given the capital-lite nature of the bancassurance business.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We cut our recommendation on <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/VCB_Initiation_Jun-2019.pdf\"><strong>VCB<\/strong><\/a> <strong>to HOLD-Outperform<\/strong> from the previous BUY call. This is entirely a valuation call after the stock\u2019s extremely impressive 62% YoY performance. The bank beat our 2019E PBT assumption, and we remain bullish on VCB\u2019s earnings prospects in the years ahead with forecast ROE of 27% in 2020E. However, the stock\u2019s 3.3x P\/BV multiple after a 62% YoY rally leaves limited fundamental upside in our view. Our target price implies 5.4% TSR, which no longer justifies an outright BUY call.<\/p>\n<p>For the complete report, please access here: <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/VCB_4Q19_Express-Note.pdf\">VCB_4Q19_Express Note<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Analyst: Tanh Tran<\/strong>,\u00a0<em>tanh.tran@yuanta.com.vn<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Preliminary 4Q19 PBT was down 12% QoQ and down 16% YoY (source: vnexpress). These preliminary results are reported on a local website, and do not include the full financial statements. However, 2019 PBT (+27% YoY) reached 108% of our full-year forecast and 116% of full-year guidance. Retail loans dominate the loan portfolio, representing 52% of&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-45120","phan-tich","type-phan-tich","status-publish","hentry","analysis-category-company-update","analysis-category-financials"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v23.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>VCB_Preliminary 2019 PBT exceeds 16% vs. target | Yuanta Vietnam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Preliminary 4Q19 PBT was down 12% QoQ and down 16% YoY (source: vnexpress). 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