{"id":72176,"date":"2020-06-15T12:59:28","date_gmt":"2020-06-15T05:59:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuanta.com.vn\/?post_type=phan-tich&#038;p=72176"},"modified":"2020-06-15T12:59:28","modified_gmt":"2020-06-15T05:59:28","slug":"hdb_agm-takeaways","status":"publish","type":"phan-tich","link":"https:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/en\/analysis\/hdb_agm-takeaways","title":{"rendered":"HDB_AGM Takeaways"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt\"><strong>HOLD-UPF<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>TP upside\/(downside) +15%<br \/>\nClose 12 June 2020<br \/>\n<strong>Price \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 26,900<br \/>\n<\/strong><strong>12M Target\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 30,970<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt\"><strong>Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>HDB targets 2020E PBT of VND5.7 tn<\/strong> (+13% YoY), with credit growth (including corporate bonds) at +16% YoY<strong>. <\/strong>To achieve the target<strong>, <\/strong>the bank plans to expand its network, increase fees through cross-selling to group partners (i.e.. Vietjet Aviation (VJC), Saigon Coop (SID), Petrolimex (PLX)), and investment in corporate bonds and government bonds.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stock dividend<\/strong> set at 50% of par value plus another 15% share bonus, which we estimate as resulting in a total of 628m new shares.<\/p>\n<p><strong>HDB plans to issue VND10 tn (USD500 mn) <\/strong>in 5-year convertible bonds in 2020 or 2021<strong>. <\/strong>In addition, HDB plans to issue an international non-convertible bond (term: 3- to 10-years) of up to USD1 billion sometime in 2020-2024.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The merger with PGBank <\/strong>is still in progress but management offered no other details.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IPO of HD Saison?<\/strong> HDB plans to convert HD Saison to a Joint Stock Company this year to prepare for an IPO at an appropriate time.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt\"><strong>Our view<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Our 2020E PBT forecast<\/strong> of VND6.1 tn (+22% YoY) now appears stretched relative to guidance and the macro realities of 2020. Our forecasts are under review.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Capital strengthening<\/strong>: The share dividend (and lack of cash dividend) is no surprise given the SBV\u2019s prudential policy on all the banks. In addition, the bond issuance will strengthen HDB\u2019s medium- to long-term funding. The funds raised from the VND10 tn convertible bond will be counted as Tier 2 capital. HDB\u2019s CAR ratio was 11.2% as at 1Q20. <em>Ceteris paribus<\/em>, we estimate the additional Tier 2 capital would boost HDB\u2019s total CAR by 3.2ppt to 14.4%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We maintain <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/HDB_3Q19-Update_10.2019.pdf\"><strong>HOLD-Underperform<\/strong><\/a>. HDB was up 3% this morning, outperforming the market on a down day, perhaps due to excitement over the share dividend. The stock trades at 1.3x 2020E P\/BV which is slightly higher than the peer median of 1.2x but is not particularly stretched given its higher-than-average ROEs. Although our forecasts are now under review, we are not overly bearish on HDB\u2019s operational outlook. However, we would await clarity on the acquisition of PG Bank before revisting our short-term cautious view.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>For the complete report, please access here: <a href=\"http:\/\/yuanta-uat.ysvn.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/HDB_AGM_13.06.2020.pdf\">HDB_AGM_13.06.2020<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Analyst: Tanh Tran<\/strong><em>, tanh.tran@yuanta.com.vn<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>HOLD-UPF TP upside\/(downside) +15% Close 12 June 2020 Price \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 26,900 12M Target\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 30,970 Key Takeaways HDB targets 2020E PBT of VND5.7 tn (+13% YoY), with credit growth (including corporate bonds) at +16% YoY. To achieve the target, the bank plans to expand its network, increase fees through cross-selling to group partners&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-72176","phan-tich","type-phan-tich","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v23.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>HDB_AGM Takeaways | Yuanta Vietnam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"HOLD-UPF TP upside\/(downside) +15% Close 12 June 2020 Price \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 26,900 12M Target\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 VND 30,970 Key Takeaways HDB targets 2020E\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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